The Human Element

We live in a world of uncertainty.  Trouble brewing in the Middle East, yet again.  The Ebola virus making its presence known in this country...the United States...while ravaging parts of western Africa.  Other health concerns from the recent migration patterns across the US southern border...perceived in some cases...real in others. Economies on the brink of collapse, or painfully on a slow mend...choose your country.   Attempting to digest the above makes the arguments concerning UFOs woefully pitiful in this context. 

As a registered nurse, I silently hold my breath with the current situation concerning the Ebola infections of two nurses, the death of one patient, and the possible exposure of hundreds of others.  Though I'm not one to raise the flag of hysteria, I silently wonder based on the current strategy of my government, ie, the CDC and other government agencies.  It's not that I distrust the protocols set in place, but I worry about the human element in this equation.  Protocols and algorithms look good on paper, in fact, most are perfect in logic.  Its the human element that throws a wrench into the gears...we as humans are fallible.

One of my neighbors is a genius concerning the financial markets.  He and I talk weekly on the current financial health of the country and California.  He's a whiz concerning the stock market utilizing analytic data bases to guide his decisions...purely abstract approach to market analysis.  He doesn't flinch much when markets drop, as they are destine to do at any given point in time.

I tend to look at the stock market in a concrete point of view, or simply as a human function regarding our confidence in our government and economy...for most of the population, the stock market is a psychological indicator that effects our emotions more than that of our investments.  This is the human element of market influx and reactions to abstract concepts such as quantitative easing or the rise and fall of GDP.  We humans are fallible and yearn for reassurance.

I remember having to piece together production and delivery schedules as a program manager back in my Air Force Systems Command days.  These schedules were derived from PERT, MBO and other gold standard policies, all perfect until said schedules were enacted, yet devoid of the human element that dooms perfection, morphing it to fragmentation and uncertainty.  The government has a hard time with the simple concept that "shit happens" and that it can strike at any time because we as humans are fallible.

The same human element was encountered when I was the Director of Nursing at an orthopedic rehab and long term care facility.  Staffing schedules were painstakingly constructed, yet doomed to failure before the ink dried.   Once again, that all too familiar lightning bolt out of the blue...the human factor...intervened with the all too predictable results.

Since this is blog represents a skeptical view towards UFO, the human element is present in most, if not all, of the cases listed.  Most UFO cases are fascinating in their own right.  They tell a story.  Most have themes and plots, not to mention a thesis statement(s) which may appear plausible or may reach into the realms of insanity.  Despite the rational or illogical premises, all have a common thread and point of origination...a singularity.  There is a human factor involved and despite our best efforts there is confusion and uncertainty for we are fallible. 

Done in by Blue Book data...Corrected data leads to new questions.

Tim Printy provided a comment questioning some of my astronomical data.  To be honest, Tom Tulien had expressed such concerns in recent comments.  Both are right...my data was incorrect.

My first problem was that I took PBB's stated elevations of Sirius, Rigel, Procyon, et al, as fact for that is where I had gotten the stated elevations.  If Printy's program is correct, then PBB data is way off the mark.

My second problem occurred when I made approximate stellar locations (azimuths) via a star map showing locations of Sirius and Rigel at various times for 24 October.  I knew that the locations were approximations and had stated so in the blog post.  But in retrospect, it was not accurate for 1968, even for approximations.

Tim Printy provided via email the following chart for Minot, ND for 24 Oct 1968.  The times listed are for local, central daylight savings time.  Tim's elevation numbers are rounded, but his information would be much more reliable than what was listed in PBB.

Object	Time	Az	El
Sirius	0200	120	3
Procyon		95	12
Rigel		134	22
Sirius	0230	126	8
Procyon		101	16
Rigel		142	26
Sirius	0300	132	12
Procyon		107	22
Rigel		149	29
Sirius	0400	145	18
Procyon		121	31
Rigel		166	33
Sirius	0500	160	23
Procyon		137	39
Rigel		184	34
Sirius	0600	176	25
Procyon		155	45
Rigel		202	31

Based on the above, the diagrams for Sirius and Rigel, as seen from N-07, would be:

The revised diagrams provides a visual that tends to support Tom Tulien's claims that Sirius would have been too low above the horizon for Isley and O'Connor to have seen it.  Further, Sirius would have been a little more than ESE of their location.

What could Isley/O'Connor have seen due east of their location (5 miles north of N-07) if not of Sirius?  Procyon was visible close to due east (azimuth of 94), elevation 12 degrees at 0200 hrs.  I have to wonder if such a star as Procyon would have attracted much of their attention, but it does change locations from east to southeast over 4 hours and stays in view for the same length of time.

With that said, Sirius and Rigel do come into play while both Jablonski/Adams and Isley/O'Connor are physically on N-07, roughly between 0300 and 0500 hrs.  This still raises questions in my mind as to how accurate were the plotted locations that each individual had annotated on their AF-117s.

A review of William Smith's AF-117 in coming soon.